For Power's Sake

Comrades-in-arms Isaias and Meles bartering Assab port

In the early 1990s, Isaias and Meles suddenly found themselves owners of Ethiopia--including its geographic space, its resources and its people. How did this come about? In their own narrative, it came about because they defeated the mighty Derg. That narrative could only be partly true. The real story is that the US and Britain wanted them in power to advance their own regional agenda. 

Let's not forget that this was two years after the end of the Cold War and Soviet collapse. The Capitalist West was absolutely inebriated with victory over Communism. Now it could once again reshape the whole world in its own "democratic" image. 

Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afwerki quickly found favor in the eyes of the West (as well as they were good at deception) and acclaimed as "new breed" democrats! The other aspect of their success was of course a vacuum needing to be filled on account of Mengistu slipping away to Zimbabwe, itself engineered by the West. Mengistu's government was already on its last legs, as was Haile Selassie's before him and, ironically, Meles Zenawi's afterwards. 

The same is true of the methods Eritrea employed to gain its independence from "colonial" Ethiopia at the UN with the Egyptian Secretary General Boutros Boutros Ghali presiding (who was not a disinterested party in the brewing scheme and, in fact, used the occasion to realize Egypt's longstanding plan to bar Ethiopia from developing the Nile river to meet its energy needs). 

The two chaps found a power vacuum and no resistance and filled it with their own destructive plan. They set to implement "ethnic" policy in Ethiopia but not in Eritrea. Eritrea, unlike Ethiopia, could not have survived such a shock. Tigre group in western Eritrea is Muslim with porous borders with Sudan;  the same is true in the largely Christian south. Isaias was keenly aware of all that. His solution? Get rid of the idea of a stupid Constitution. Forget democratic elections. Forget human rights protection. Gear up for a compulsory military draft. Oil the war machine. Remain in the Arab League. Keep the nation on a permanent war footing. Institute rationing of resources. All who are unhappy could leave (which tens of thousands took risking their very lives in the process). There we go. And eight wars with neighboring countries far and near since 1993.

In the photo above, Meles and Isaias are seen surveying the Red Sea cost. And the two, hear this, decided there and then that the whole coastal area should be incorporated into Eritrea! Just like that. Meles took the larger portion, Ethiopia. Isaias took a greatly elongated coastal line. Later, Isaias would covet a fertile region into north-western Ethiopia for his future granary with disastrous consequences for the two parties. 

All the evidence is still out there to support Ethiopia's national interests were compromised without public consent and/or any legality. To realize Isaias's hold on Assab port, he and Meles used a scare tactic to depopulate Assab of all Ethiopian residents. If any questions arose, a referendum could be held to give their project legitimacy. 

In other words, it is still possible a proper diplomatic and PR strategy could realize Ethiopia's claims to the port of Assab. Remember, the then mediator Carter was so baffled by the very idea that he had to enquire why a leader would want to deprive his nation of a sea outlet. 

The problem now? Abiy. Yes, Abiy confused diplomatic maneuvers with personal charm! Please go back and review his theatrics with a very skillful Isaias who knew to bully his way through to his target! Abiy simply did not have the skill set to handle such negotiations or seasoned enough to let a professional team handle it. Consider this: except for Taye Atske-Selassie, none of the four Abiy appointed to MOFA had the requisite training or experience in diplomacy! In short, Abiy is a micro-manager who prioritizes loyalty over competence. That's why bombastic public statements almost always petered out as soon as they're made. 

In the end, Abiy used confusing events generated by himself and by forces beyond his control to extend and establish his hold on power. In other words, for each of the individuals mentioned above POWER was the goal. That is, power at all costs. 

Sorry, this had to be said not for some malice but because the survival of Ethiopia is a much larger, enduring, and noble project than a single accidental leader, here today, gone tomorrow!