Egypt's War

The real reason Egypt is stoking conflict in Ethiopia has little to do with a dam or reduced water volume. The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was planned, a/ in consultation with international experts, b/ with the full assurance that downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt) will still be receiving their quota, c/ the boisterous reaction is tinged with envy because, whereas, Egypt had to depend on the Soviet Union (after US and Britain withdrew their offer) to finance the Aswan (inaugurated in 1971), Ethiopians scraped together every centime to build their own (which began operation in 2025), and d/ Egypt is still stuck in the distant past, acting like Pharaoh or more recently, its colonizer Britain. In other words, Egypt has convinced itself that it could unilaterally decide how Ethiopia should harness its God-given resources.

The real reason for Egypt turning so violent is due to its domestic policy crisis, which smacks of the 2011 Tahrir Troubles. Consider these facts:

1. Egypt's pound has lost 70% of its value in 2026.

2. The military industrial complex has taken over every aspect of life, especially so in the past four years after Sisi's coup against a democratically elected government. A new military city, The Octagon, cost $56 billion (not million), and was inaugurated in early July 2026. Imagine the level of corruption and disdain for the welfare of long-suffering Egyptians.

3. Egypt needs to sell its outdated and oversupply of arms. There comes Isaias (recently signed a pact with Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan at El Alamein). Isaias, the compulsive warmonger, has been busy conducting a cycle of insurgency since 1995, in Yemen, the Congo, Sudan, Djibouti, and Ethiopia, instead of leading a poor nation to peace and development. He needs a steady supply of explosives as well as grain. Sisi is willing to do just that with the understanding that Isaias kept Ethiopia embroiled in mini-conflicts. A week ago, Isaias crossed into Ethiopian territory to soon realize that a TPLF contingent he had counted on has fallen apart. That's when his foreign minister rushed to New York to request UN intervention on account of Ethiopia's "declaration of war." It could be he over-reached this time around.

Egyptian leaders are worried about a Tahrir 2.0. All the ingredients are in place: high unemployment, rights abuses, the few getting extremely wealthy, Palestinian suffering auctioned off to the highest bidder (with high returns), Christians reduced to second-class citizens and subjected to random assault and expropriation of their place of worship, etc. In short, to create distractions by pointing out that Ethiopia is stealthily emptying the Nile River. How foolish!

A much better alternative is, of course, good neighborliness and the path of peace for the struggling masses!