Egypt's Glass House

Sisi is trying to distract Egyptians from his corrupt leadership. He seems to have a short memory, Tahrir Uprising only a decade-and-half ago. How does he distract this time? Start a proxy war connected to the Nile, the lifeblood of Egypt. Tell the public that Ethiopia is emptying the Nile (quite a feat) or, as his predecessors feared, plans to poison the waters! It's all nonsense, of course.

Now, consider spending $56 billion for a spanking new military city (The Octagon) at a time of high unemployment, human rights abuses, economic crisis, and Sisi government profiting from Palestinian suffering. 

The "Coalition of Seven" that Isaias organized on behalf of Sisi is supposed to serve two purposes: first, by fear-mongering Isaias and Sisi hope to subdue their respective public from rising against their dictatorial rule; second, Isaias would benefit in cash and a steady supply of armament (a supply he could never get enough of). Nearly two decades ago, Isaias had unsuccessfully organized a Ginbot 7 against his comrade-turned-nemesis Meles Zenawi. 

The one drawback is that Isaias has no way into Ethiopia's interior because of geography. Worse, each of the "groups" has no grassroots support. In fact, they are already disowned and are the subject of public derision. To understand what's going on, you need to look at the actual size and capabilities of each group. The first thing you would notice is that there is no agreement on what to name the coalition. This would not be obvious to someone who does not understand local languages. So, is it Tsimdo or Ximdo or ጥምዶ or ፅምዶ? 

Secondly, you look at who the actual representatives are: two are from Gumuz/Benshangul, two from Oromo, one from Amhara, one from Tigray, and coordinated by Eritrea. The new arrangement is more likely a follow-up from the 1990s EPRDF template! This time, however, Eritrea alone is recruiting mercenaries locally (Egypt as its paymaster--and without the full backing of the TPLF). 

Most importantly, Ethiopia's public (including those opposed to Abiy) is aware of three facts: first, that Isaias has been a failure as a leader; he has waged similar wars since Day 1 and has miserably failed at leading his own nation to peace and development (with half the young population of the small nation fleeing at every opportunity). Second, Ethiopians are incensed because Isaias and Meles deprived Ethiopia of access to the sea. Finally, Sisi, now the enemy in all that GERD means to Ethiopians, has unknowingly ended up bringing them together. 

GERD belongs to every Ethiopian, and they sought no outside support to finance it! Isaias and Sisi are playing a losing game.