Egypt's Glass House

Sisi is trying to distract Egyptians from his corrupt leadership. He seems to have a short memory, Tahrir Uprising only a decade-and-half away. How does he distract this time? Start a proxy war connected to the Nile, the lifeblood of Egypt. Tell the public that Ethiopia is emptying the Nile (quite a feat), or as his predecessors long ago  feared, was planning to poison the waters! It's all nonsense, of course.

Now, consider spending $56 billion on spanking new military city (The Octagon) at a time of high unemployment, human rights abuses, economic crisis, and Sisi government making profit from Palestinian suffering. 

The "Coalition of Seven" that Isaias organized on behalf of Sisi is supposed to serve two purposes: first, by fear-mongering both Isaias and Sisi hope to subdue their respective publics from rising up against their dictatorial rule; secondly, Isaias would benefit in cash and in steady supply of armament (a supply he could never get enough of).  Nearly two decades ago, Isaias had unsuccessfully organized a Ginbot 7 against his comrade-turned-nemesis Meles Zenawi. 

The one drawback is that Isaias has no way into Ethiopian interior because of geography. Worse, each of the "groups" have no grassroots support. In fact, they are already disowned to a point of becoming subject of public derision. To understand what's going on, you need to look at the actual size and capabilities of each of the groups. The first thing you would notice is that there is no agreement on what to name the coalition. This would not be obvious to someone who has no understanding of local languages. So, is it Tsimdo or Ximdo or ጥምዶ or ፅምዶ? 

Secondly, you look at who the actual representatives are; two from Gumuz/Benshangul, two from Oromo, one from Amhara, one from Tigray, and Eritrea. The new arrangement is, more likely, a follow-up from a 1990s template, the EPRDF! This time, however, Eritrea alone is recruiting mercenaries locally (Egypt as its paymaster, and without full backing of the TPLF). 

Most importantly, Ethiopian public (including those opposed to Abiy) are aware of three facts: first, Isaias has been a failure as a leader; he has waged similar wars since Day 1 and has miserably failed at leading his own nation to peace and development (just look at half the young population of the small nation fleeing at every opportunity). Secondly, Ethiopians are incensed because Isaias, along with the late-Meles, connived to deprive Ethiopia of its rightful access to the sea. Finally, Sisi, now in the picture as enemy to all that GERD means to Ethiopians, has unknowingly ended up bringing them together. 

GERD belongs to every Ethiopian and no outside support was sought in financing it! In other words, Isaias and Sisi are playing a losing game.