Blue Revolution
Brigade N'hmedu's leader is Beyene Gerezgiher. Beyene currently resides in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. The brigade, we are told, now has a 51-member international council.
A couple million Eritreans currently live in exile (total population in Eritrea proper is less than 4 million (2026 estimate, World Population Review). Recently, those in Israel were threatened with deportation as protests in support of the "blue revolution" turned into violent clashes with the pro-Isaias group. Street clashes between the opposition and those in support of the current regime is now the pattern everywhere.
Interestingly, the Trump Administration a week ago lifted a Biden-era "sanctions targeting Eritrea's ruling party and the military." The sanctions were over Eritrea's siding five years ago with the ruling party in Addis, in the devastating Tigray conflict. Egypt had a hand in the lifting of the sanctions. By some coincidence, a new war erupted the same week. This time, however, the two old enemies are mysteriously in alliance (with 5 other entities as cover) against the regime in Addis.
The region now is a powder keg that could easily get out hand. Egypt, of course, has deluded itself into thinking that it has the final word to determine how Ethiopia utilized its water resources. And it would compulsively seek to destabilize Ethiopia. Then there is the UAE, Saudis, Chinese, the US, self-destructing Sudan, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, the French, Yemen and Bab al-Mandab and, not least, Israel chasing their interests.
Israel was the first and only UN-member nation to lend a controversial recognition as a sovereign state to isolated Somaliland. This happened on December 2025 (a year after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding to recognize sovereignty at a future date in exchange for access to the Red Sea).
The main actor in the present conflict in northern Ethiopia is Eritrea (and Egypt), not Tigray Front (TPLF). Tigrayans are uncharacteristically conflicted over the wisdom of going to another war, having experienced death and destruction just a short four years ago.
And so, a hastily organized group is out to drive Abiy out of power and establish a "democratic" government. Ironically, none of them individually cared about democratic governance. The so-called "alliance of seven" could not even agree on a common name. Tsimdo (ጽምዶ) is a Tigrinya agricultural term meaning to yolk (oxen); the word would translate ጥምድ/ጥማድ Timd/Timad in Amharic. Ximdo in Oromo is a transliteration of the Tigrinya. The remaining 4 members have to go along without representation. The name in its entirety is, The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival (EPFCS?). There we go.
Here is the caveat. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made explicit his plan to regain access to the port of Asab (which, by the way, was illegally closed off to Ethiopia without any public deliberation whatsoever other than a secret pact between the late-Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afwerki--for the latter to exert pressure on the larger and more resourceful Ethiopia to get his way. In other words, Isaias is the only impediment preventing Abiy from realizing his dream; any force, therefore, that would dislodge Isaias is most welcome.
Would that force be the Brigade N'Hamedu networking a "blue movement" in 17 countries out of a warehouse in Israel (with Israel's approval), and its leader in Addis? The stakes are high. But then the returns, too, are high--especially for Israel to exert undue influence in the region's long and volatile choke points, which this time could include Eritrea. The US will surely bless the new power geography.
