Blue Revolution
Brigade N'hmedu's leader is Beyene Gerezgiher. Beyene currently resides in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. The brigade, we are told, now has a 51-member international council.
A couple of million Eritreans currently live in exile (total population in Eritrea proper is less than 4 million (2026 World Population Review estimate). Recently, those in Israel were threatened with deportation as protests in support of the "blue revolution" turned into violent clashes with the pro-Isaias group. Street clashes between the opposition and supporters of the current regime are now the pattern everywhere.
Interestingly, the Trump Administration, a week ago, lifted a 'Biden-era' "sanctions targeting Eritrea's ruling party and the military." The sanctions were over Eritrea's siding five years ago with the ruling party in Addis in the devastating Tigray conflict. Egypt had a hand in the lifting of the sanctions. By some coincidence, a new war erupted the same week the sanctions were lifted. It could be Isaias, in desperation, offered the US a "deal" it could not ignore. Also, the two old enemies are now mysteriously in alliance (with 5 other entities as cover) against the regime in Addis.
The region now is a powder keg that could easily get really messy. Egypt, of course, has always deluded itself into thinking it has the final word on Ethiopia's water resources. And it would compulsively seek to destabilize Ethiopia. Then there is the UAE, Saudis, Chinese, the US, self-destructing Sudan, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, the French, Yemen, and Bab al-Mandab, and not least, Israel, chasing their interests.
Israel was the first and only UN-member nation to lend controversial recognition as a sovereign state to isolated Somaliland. This happened in December 2025 (a year after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding to recognize Somaliland's sovereignty at a future date in exchange for access to the Red Sea).
The culprit in the present conflict in northern Ethiopia is Eritrea (and Egypt), not Tigray Front (TPLF). Tigrayans are uncharacteristically conflicted over the wisdom of going to another war, having experienced death and destruction just a short four years ago.
And so, a hastily organized group is out to drive Abiy out of power and establish (you guessed it) a "democratic" government. Ironically, none of them individually cared about democratic governance. The so-called "alliance of seven" could not even agree on a common name. Tsimdo (ጽምዶ) is a Tigrinya agricultural term meaning to yolk (oxen); the word would translate ጥምድ/ጥማድ Timd/Timad in Amharic. Ximdo in Oromo is a transliteration of the Tigrinya. The remaining 4 members have to go along without representation. The name in entirety is: The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival (EPFCS?). Does anyone remember a similar coalition in 1991 (EPRDF, Ethiopian People's ...), hastily put together? There we go.
Here is the caveat. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made clear his plan to regain access to the port of Asab. The port, to the surprise even of Jimmy Carter, was illegally closed off to Ethiopia without any public deliberation whatsoever other than a secret pact between the late-Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afwerki--for the latter to get his way in the affairs of the larger and more resourceful Ethiopia. In other words, Isaias is the only impediment preventing Abiy from realizing his dream; any force, therefore, that would dislodge Isaias is most welcome.
Would that force be the Brigade N'Hamedu networking a "blue movement" in 17 countries out of a warehouse in Israel (with Israel's approval) and its leader in Addis? The stakes are high. But then the returns, too, are high--especially for Israel to exert undue influence in the region's long and volatile choke points, which this time could include Eritrea. The US will surely bless the new power geography.
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